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疫情橫掃全球汽車制造業(yè)，新能源汽車何去何從？

分類：

行業(yè)動態(tài)

發(fā)布時間：

2020-05-09

新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延，造成的全球供給鏈重塑對產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展將帶來嚴重沖擊。應對疫情沖擊，我國如何推進基于內(nèi)需的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整？如何處理好產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與擴大內(nèi)需的關系？央視財經(jīng)特別策劃《戰(zhàn)“疫”后新機遇》特邀中國（海南）改革發(fā)展研究院院長、中國經(jīng)濟體制改革研究會副會長遲福林為您解答。

疫情沖擊下產(chǎn)業(yè)如何發(fā)展？遲福林：基于內(nèi)需的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整是重要選擇

遲福林表示，盡管受疫情嚴重沖擊，我國經(jīng)濟長期向好的基本面沒有改變，因為我國正處在經(jīng)濟轉型升級的重要階段，經(jīng)濟運行強、潛力大、回旋余地大的特征比較突出。但是目前我國經(jīng)濟活動尚未恢復到正常水平，在外部需求明顯減少的特定背景下，擴大內(nèi)需是結構調整的當務之急。

遲福林認為，目前我國工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化應該持續(xù)較快推進，估計未來十年左右，我國的消費結構、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構和城鄉(xiāng)結構，還有10到15個百分點的提升空間。

遲福林認為，基于內(nèi)需的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整是疫情沖擊下產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要選擇，是我國經(jīng)濟轉型升級的內(nèi)在需求，是經(jīng)濟基本面仍然看好的最大底氣。

但是，面對這場全球大疫情，要冷靜客觀的估計，要以穩(wěn)住經(jīng)濟作為承擔大國責任的首要前提。我國是全球制造業(yè)大國，有門類比較齊全、完整的制造業(yè)體系，自我恢復能力和供應能力比較強，要以釋放市場活力為重點，更多用市場的辦法來恢復經(jīng)濟。

疫情之下逆勢生長！新產(chǎn)業(yè)、新業(yè)態(tài)迎新機遇

遲福林表示，此次疫情催生和促進了某些新型產(chǎn)業(yè)和新型業(yè)態(tài)的發(fā)展，這是應該重視的一個方面。例如，云娛樂、云直播、云看展等新業(yè)態(tài)用戶高漲，各地博物館推出了2000余項網(wǎng)上展覽，春節(jié)期間總瀏覽量超過了50億人次，眾多5A級景區(qū)開辟了線上瀏覽功能。由此可以看到，在疫情的刺激下，雖然傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)受到巨大沖擊，但新型消費和升級消費在不斷地拓展。

從市場銷售來看，1-2月份，與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相關的行業(yè)得到較快的增長，實物商品網(wǎng)上零售額同比增長3%，占社會消費品零售總額的比重達到了21.5%，比去年同期提高了5個百分點，3D打印設備、智能手表等電子產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量增長都在100%以上。

疫情橫掃全球汽車制造業(yè)，新能源汽車何去何從？

遲福林表示，這次疫情確實嚴重沖擊了部分行業(yè)，一方面由于疫情影響，導致關鍵零部件等中間產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)停工，對汽車制造等行業(yè)的總體需求和供應鏈造成嚴重沖擊，加大了汽車等行業(yè)的下行壓力。

另一方面油價大幅下跌后，使得新能源汽車和傳統(tǒng)燃油車之間的相對競爭力反而下降。

遲福林認為，要提升新能源汽車節(jié)能環(huán)保產(chǎn)業(yè)的競爭力，關鍵要擴大新能源汽車節(jié)能環(huán)保產(chǎn)業(yè)的市場開放力度，將產(chǎn)業(yè)政策建立在競爭政策基礎之上，以提升新能源汽車節(jié)能環(huán)保產(chǎn)業(yè)的競爭力，激發(fā)市場活力。

遲福林還表示，要推動形成區(qū)域制造業(yè)分工合作新機制。例如，新能源汽車電池有80%來自于中日韓，因此疫情沖擊下的中日韓合作要在汽車制造等制造業(yè)領域形成區(qū)域分工合作的新機制，來提升區(qū)域內(nèi)各國在這些產(chǎn)業(yè)領域的投資自由化和便利化水平。例如，攜手維護中日韓關鍵制造業(yè)供應鏈的安全穩(wěn)定，推動三國制造業(yè)向全球價值鏈的上游發(fā)展，充分發(fā)揮各自技術優(yōu)勢，推動協(xié)同創(chuàng)新和合作研發(fā)，推動生產(chǎn)要素流動便利化，降低制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本等。

遲福林認為，在疫情嚴重沖擊產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的背景下，中日韓的產(chǎn)業(yè)合作對應對疫情沖擊將有特殊的作用。

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